业务实力不足以证明其估值合理，Cloudflare仍然还有下跌空间

Core Viewpoint - Cloudflare has successfully transitioned from a B2C to a B2B model over the past decade, with enterprise business now accounting for over 90% of its revenue, compared to less than 10% at the start [1][4]. Business Model - The company's business model has evolved to leverage a "funding pool" strategy, allowing customers to commit a small amount of money to access a range of products, enhancing customer retention and revenue predictability [5][8]. - Cloudflare operates with approximately 80% gross margins and can achieve significant operational efficiency with minimal capital expenditure, allowing it to scale effectively [4]. Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2023, the total transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations was $1.2446 billion, with 73% expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months [8]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is guiding towards a revenue upper limit of $2.1 billion, reflecting a 25% growth rate, which is lower than the 42% compound annual growth rate observed from 2019 to 2024 [8][11]. Market Position and Valuation - By the end of 2027, Cloudflare's revenue is projected to reach $4 billion, with a valuation based on over 10 times the fiscal year 2027 revenue, compared to a median of about 10 times forward revenue for companies in the BVP cloud index [14][15]. - The company's long-term model anticipates a free cash flow of $1 billion, resulting in a free cash flow yield of only 2%, which is relatively low compared to safer investments like U.S. Treasuries [17]. Strategic Considerations - Cloudflare's growth strategy heavily relies on its "funding pool" approach, which ties customer spending to the company's product offerings, creating a dependency that could pose risks if product or sales execution falters [24]. - The company is well-positioned for potential acquisitions, as evidenced by the recent acquisition of Wiz for $32 billion, which had revenues of $700 million, indicating that Cloudflare could achieve higher valuations through strategic growth [24].