三星和SK海力士预测：不好

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is expected to rebound starting from the second quarter of this year, although the recovery will be gradual and not significant. Both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are projected to report disappointing first-quarter earnings due to weak memory semiconductor prices and expanded losses in their foundry divisions [1][2]. Group 1: Samsung Electronics - Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit is estimated to be around 5 trillion KRW, a decrease of over 1 trillion KRW compared to both the previous year's first quarter (6.6 trillion KRW) and the last quarter (6.5 trillion KRW) [1]. - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to weak storage semiconductor prices and increased losses in the foundry sector. The memory business is expected to generate profits exceeding 2 trillion KRW, but an operating loss of approximately 400 billion KRW is anticipated [1]. - The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) export restrictions to China and the drop in prices of general memory products have negatively impacted profitability compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 2: SK Hynix - SK Hynix's first-quarter operating profit is projected to be around 6.5 trillion KRW, showing growth compared to last year's first quarter (2.886 trillion KRW) but a decline of over 1 trillion KRW from the previous quarter (8.1 trillion KRW) [2]. - The decrease in performance is linked to falling prices of general DRAM and a slight decline in HBM shipments to its core customer, NVIDIA [2]. - Positive signs have emerged in April with increased demand for memory, as Micron, one of the three major DRAM producers, announced significant price hikes, leading to expectations of a "spring for semiconductors" in the second quarter [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts expect that the performance of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will improve in the second quarter due to demand from China, the largest market [2]. - Recent adjustments in mobile DRAM inventory in China are nearing completion, with DDR4 spot prices following DDR5 price increases, indicating a price increase phase in the first half of the year [2]. - NAND flash prices are also anticipated to enter an upward trend starting in April due to long-term supply reductions, with expectations of a recovery in the memory industry after the second quarter [2].