“申”度解盘 | 市场迎来调整，四月关注以下几点

Core Viewpoint - The market situation in April is complex, suggesting a cautious approach and potential reduction in positions [2]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken below the important 30-day moving average support, indicating a higher likelihood of weakness in the index [3]. - The index has experienced an upward trend for approximately 11 weeks, but a correction is expected in the next 4-6 weeks based on Fibonacci retracement levels [3]. - The MACD indicator shows a trend of increasing bearishness, suggesting that adjustments in time and space are still insufficient, warranting a cautious stance [3]. Group 2: April Earnings Season - This year marks the first earnings season under the new national regulations, emphasizing full-process supervision of listed companies and improved delisting systems [4]. - The market is expected to place greater weight on earnings performance, with a pessimistic outlook following earnings disclosures from major internet companies [4]. - Companies with high price-to-earnings ratios and low profitability have seen significant declines, with micro-cap stocks dropping nearly 5% this week, reflecting caution towards the April earnings reports [4]. Group 3: Overseas Uncertainties - U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on non-U.S. manufactured cars and specific auto parts, effective April 2, has heightened global economic tensions and increased recession expectations in the U.S. [5]. - The rising gold prices indicate ongoing concerns regarding overseas uncertainties [5]. Group 4: Positive Aspects - Despite the prevailing negative analysis, there are potential positive factors, such as the possibility of a value reassessment of A-shares and Hong Kong tech stocks due to U.S. economic downturns [7]. - The marginal impact of U.S. tariffs on China is decreasing, potentially accelerating domestic substitution efforts [7]. - There is significant room for policy adjustments in China, with indications from the central bank regarding potential interest rate cuts [7]. Group 5: Summary - The market's complexity in April necessitates decisions based on trading volume: observing when below 1.5 trillion, participating between 1.5-2 trillion, and holding strong positions above 2 trillion [8]. - Attention should be given to sectors benefiting from U.S. tariffs stimulating domestic substitutes, such as lithography equipment, and potential countermeasures from China in rare earths and agriculture [8]. - Industries with rising demand and price increases, such as industrial chemicals and cutting-edge technologies like solid-state batteries and controlled nuclear fusion, should also be monitored [8].