“四月决断”在即，如何调整投资节奏？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal phenomena in A-shares known as "Spring Excitement" and "April Decision," emphasizing their impact on market trends and investment strategies. Group 1: Seasonal Phenomena - "Spring Excitement" is driven by policy expectations, while "April Decision" is dominated by fundamental verification, leading to a shift towards fundamental pricing in the market [1]. - Historical data shows that in 8 out of the last 10 years, if April's returns were positive, the full-year returns were also positive, indicating an 80% success rate for the "April Decision" theory [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The main theme for the first three months of the year was a technology growth rally, which needs to be validated by April's earnings to determine sustainability [3]. - Current bond yields indicate a potential adjustment in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting an increase in bond fund allocations [4]. - The dividend yields of the CSI Dividend and CSI Low Volatility Dividend indices are at high levels, making them attractive for investment to reduce portfolio volatility [4]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Predictions - The market has already begun to price in expectations for the "April Decision" as early as March, indicating that smart money is anticipating these trends [6]. - The consensus around the "April Decision" may face challenges due to the market's early pricing behavior [7]. - The difficulty of investing is highlighted, suggesting that a solid fixed-income asset base is essential for stable long-term investment [8]. Group 4: Investment Approach - It is recommended to control equity investment proportions and maintain internal balance to adapt to market changes [9]. - The Snowball Three-Point Method promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing [10].