全球风险偏好，正在急剧下降

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies on global markets, suggesting that it may lead to a significant downturn in the economy and stock markets, particularly in the U.S. [2][14] Group 1: Market Reactions - Global investors are concerned that Trump's aggressive tariff policies could drag the global economy into a recession [14] - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Nasdaq expected to drop by 4% to 16,668 points under a neutral scenario, and potentially 10% to 15,700 points under a pessimistic scenario [20] - Gold prices are rising as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market volatility [2][27] Group 2: Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs provided two scenarios regarding the impact of tariffs: a 13% tariff leading to a 7% increase in S&P 500 EPS and a 25% tariff leading to a 3% increase [10] - Moody's has raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 15% to 40%, while Goldman Sachs increased its forecast from 20% to 35% [10] - Long-term inflation concerns are at their highest in over three decades, with consumers increasingly worried about rising prices [10] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider using VIX for hedging against market volatility [21] - In the Hong Kong market, there is potential for gradual positioning in core technology stocks, especially if the U.S. market continues to decline [22] - The article suggests that the Hong Kong market has already priced in various negative factors, indicating a potential for recovery if conditions improve [23] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The article posits that despite current market challenges, historical patterns suggest that significant downturns are often followed by prolonged bull markets [29][30] - The underlying strength of the U.S. economy and the quality of companies may support a rebound in the stock market [30] - Investors are encouraged to focus on company performance during earnings season, with a preference for those showing strong results [31]