【广发宏观王丹】3月中观景气度分布特征分析

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in March increased by 0.3 points to 50.5, indicating a continued improvement in the macroeconomic environment, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 7 to 8 [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The computer communication electronics industry reached a PMI close to 60, the highest since June 2017, driven by consumer upgrades and equipment renewal [1][6]. - The textile and apparel industry showed significant improvement, with related sectors like chemical fiber and plastics also performing well [1][6]. - The pharmaceutical industry saw a similar recovery compared to the previous year, with strong new and export orders [1][6][7]. Group 2: External Demand - Export orders for the computer communication electronics and textile industries increased by 10.8 and 20.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in industry PMIs [2][8]. - Despite increasing global de-globalization, export orders remain resilient, with some industries possibly experiencing "export rush" [2][8]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The "AI+" trend significantly boosted the new generation information technology sector, with a notable increase in high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials [2][10]. - The new energy vehicle sector saw an 8.1-point increase in PMI, reflecting the benefits of new policies [2][10]. - The emerging service industries, particularly business consulting and elder care, showed the highest PMIs, indicating strong demand driven by policy support [2][10][11]. Group 4: Construction and Real Estate - The construction PMI rose by 0.7 points to 53.4, with residential construction showing an 11.8-point increase, outperforming civil engineering and construction [3][11][12]. - The real estate sector's operational indicators, including new orders and expectations, improved in March, suggesting a recovery in the sales front [3][11][12]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased by 0.3 points to 50.3, with improvements in productive service industries such as water transport and IT services [3][14]. - Financial services remained strong, supported by increased credit to private and small enterprises [3][14].