GGII：新型硅碳进入动力规模化应用“拐点”

Core Viewpoint - From 2025, leading power lithium battery companies will start large-scale verification of new silicon-carbon materials, indicating a significant shift in the lithium battery industry towards advanced materials [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, the shipment volume of silicon-based composite materials for lithium batteries in China is projected to be 21,000 tons, representing an 11% year-on-year growth. However, this growth is below expectations due to intense price competition in the lithium battery industry, leading companies to reduce the production ratio of high-capacity battery products [3][4]. - Despite the overall underperformance of the silicon-based materials market, the new silicon-carbon (porous silicon-carbon) market is thriving and has become a trend in the technological iteration of anode materials [5]. Group 2: Development Characteristics - The new silicon-carbon materials market is characterized by accelerated application scenarios, with leading power lithium battery companies starting large-scale verification from 2025, and consumer electronics companies rapidly implementing new silicon-carbon applications, achieving a monthly shipment volume exceeding 10 tons in early 2025 [6]. - Core technologies are continuously iterating, with the preparation route of porous carbon shifting from biomass-based to resin-based, significantly improving raw material consistency and product performance. The mass production process has seen the composite ratio of small cylindrical batteries exceed 20%, pushing the specific capacity of silicon-based composite materials to surpass 600 mAh/g [8]. - Raw material costs are rapidly declining, with the price of silane gas dropping from over 300,000 yuan/ton in early 2024 to below 100,000 yuan/ton in early 2025, and biomass porous carbon prices generally below 150,000 yuan/ton. The cost reduction for new silicon-carbon raw materials exceeds 130,000 yuan/ton, with a reduction ratio of over 40% [8]. - However, mass production bottlenecks remain, as the stability of equipment and maturity of processes are still challenges, despite the acceleration of technology layout by silicon-based anode companies and equipment suppliers from 2022 to 2024 [8]. Group 3: Impact on Lithium Battery Industry - The rise of new silicon-carbon materials is expected to enhance battery energy density significantly. With low expansion characteristics, the composite ratio of mass-produced products is anticipated to exceed 30%, and the specific capacity of silicon-based composite materials is expected to surpass 750 mAh/g. Innovations in lithium batteries, such as thick coating technology and high solid content processes, may enable the energy density of liquid lithium batteries to exceed 400 Wh/kg [9]. - The collaboration of catalytic carbon nanotubes and new silicon-carbon technology is expected to significantly improve the rate performance of new silicon-carbon anodes, with leading lithium battery companies accelerating the technological layout of single-walled carbon nanotubes combined with new silicon-carbon composite materials [10].