建材｜如何看待反内卷形势下建材行业的投资机会和配置节奏

Core Viewpoint - The building materials industry, closely linked to real estate, has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2021, but is now showing signs of demand stabilization and potential profit recovery due to policy shifts and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Demand Outlook - The demand for building materials is expected to decline in 2025, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with a positive second derivative indicating potential recovery [2][4]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to improve due to reduced local government debt pressures and a more favorable financing environment, with a notable decrease in the growth rate of municipal financing debt [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing significant declines in new construction and completion areas, but overall sales are expected to turn positive, indicating a potential shift in demand for building materials [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the government aims to curb excessive competition in the building materials sector, which has seen profit margins reach historical lows [6]. - The competitive landscape is crucial for recovery; larger firms with better market positions can influence pricing more effectively, while smaller firms may struggle [6][9]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials, with over 60% market share, have demonstrated resilience during demand downturns, maintaining profitability in their gypsum board business [7]. Group 3: Price Recovery and Elasticity - The price recovery in the fiberglass sector is leading the way, with price increases initiated in early 2025 due to better demand and competitive conditions [8]. - The cement industry, while facing weaker demand than fiberglass, has a favorable competitive structure, with significant price increases observed in early 2025 [9]. - The consumer building materials sector, although lagging behind in demand recovery, shows potential for higher market value elasticity as the industry undergoes consolidation [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The building materials industry presents structural investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy, with profits at a bottom and companies collaborating on price increases [12].