对等关税即将落地，市场严正以待：申万期货早间评论-20250402

Group 1 - The article highlights the imminent implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the US, with a proposed 20% tariff on most imported goods, which may lead to increased inflation and unemployment challenges for the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The European Union is prepared to retaliate against the US tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - China's manufacturing sector shows signs of expansion, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2 in March, marking a 0.4 percentage point increase from February [2] Group 2 - The electronic information manufacturing industry in China experienced a 10.6% year-on-year increase in value added during January-February, outperforming overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing growth rates [3] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the pharmaceutical sector leading gains while the home appliance sector lagged, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment as companies prepare for annual report disclosures [4] - The bond market saw a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.83%, while the central bank's operations indicated a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - The oil market is facing potential disruptions due to new US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with OPEC planning to increase production by 135,000 barrels per day in May [6] - The methanol market is experiencing a decline in production capacity, with overall operating rates dropping to 71.41% as of March 27 [7] - The rubber market is under pressure due to fluctuating demand and supply dynamics, with domestic production recovering while exports remain weak [8] Group 4 - The PTA market is facing limited upward price movement due to weak demand and high inventory levels, despite some supply-side adjustments [11] - The copper market is expected to experience fluctuations, with stable domestic demand but concerns over future supply [13] - The steel market is showing signs of stabilization, but the recovery of real demand remains cautious, with attention on the pace of steel mill restarts [19]