高工锂电·2025-04-03 11:55Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate transaction price continues to decline, indicating a persistent bottoming out phase in the market, with a clear oversupply expected post-2025 [1][7]. Price Trends - As of April 2, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan per ton, down from 77,650 yuan per ton at the beginning of February, reflecting a significant narrowing of price fluctuations compared to 2024 [1]. - By the end of March, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures saw a weekly decline of 3%, hitting a new low of 72,420 yuan per ton since its listing [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is increasingly robust, with both import volumes and domestic production rising. In the first two months of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports surged by 47.5% year-on-year to 32,500 tons, primarily sourced from Chile and Argentina [4]. - Despite strong supply and demand in the spot market, the overall market remains quiet due to an oversupply situation, with material companies primarily replenishing inventory based on immediate needs [3][4]. Cost Pressures - The price of Australian spodumene concentrate fell to 835 USD per ton by the end of March, entering the cost range, leading to significant cash losses for 30% to 40% of global production capacity, particularly for high-cost projects [5]. - Domestic lithium salt manufacturers are also facing losses amid the declining lithium prices, prompting a shift towards accelerating the release of low-cost lithium carbonate production capacity [8]. Strategic Adjustments - Ganfeng Lithium believes that lithium prices are likely at a relative bottom. The company plans to focus on developing low-cost projects, aiming to keep the cost of quality projects below 50,000 yuan per ton [9]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana lithium salt lake project in Argentina has commenced production, with expectations of stabilizing supply and reducing production costs in the second half of 2025 [9].