中金 | 网下打新：展望2025年，2亿元A类账户打新收益有望达到4.5%

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the issuance and underwriting rules by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges aims to enhance the participation of long-term funds in the IPO market, particularly by including wealth management companies as offline investors and allowing bank wealth management and insurance asset management products to be classified as A-class allocation objects, which is expected to positively impact the offline subscription market [2][8]. Group 1: Impact on Offline Subscription Market - The inclusion of insurance asset management products as A-class investors is expected to increase their offline subscription returns by approximately 10-20%, assuming other conditions remain unchanged [9]. - The number of A-class account investors is anticipated to see a slight increase, driven by an expected acceleration in new stock issuance and the continuation of first-day price surge effects [9]. - If the current concentration level of bids and the qualification situation remain unchanged, the winning rate may face downward pressure [9]. Group 2: Market Review and Performance - In March 2025, there were 11 IPOs in the A-share market, raising a total of 5.4 billion yuan, which represents a 22% increase in the number of IPOs month-on-month but a 16% decrease in financing scale [5][23]. - The average winning rates for A/B class accounts in the main board were 0.0133% and 0.0111%, respectively, while for the ChiNext board, they were 0.0291% and 0.0260% [8]. - New stocks in March 2025 saw significant first-day price increases, with the main board averaging a 299% increase and the ChiNext board averaging a 219% increase [5][40]. Group 3: Revenue Forecasts - Under neutral assumptions, the expected annual subscription returns for a 200 million yuan A/B class account in A-shares for 2025 are projected to be 4.54% and 3.69%, respectively [3][21]. - For a 500 million yuan A/B class account, the expected returns are 2.97% and 2.42%, while for a 1 billion yuan A/B class account, the returns are projected at 1.69% and 1.38% [3][21]. - The analysis indicates that the overall IPO issuance pace and fundraising scale are expected to steadily increase compared to the previous year, with the 2025 IPO rhythm anticipated to be between the levels of 2023 and 2024 [14].