今夜，大崩盘！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market turmoil triggered by the new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration, leading to a historic sell-off in the U.S. stock market and heightened fears of a potential global economic recession [2][4][15]. Market Reaction - U.S. stock indices experienced severe declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 3.5%, S&P 500 nearly 4%, and Nasdaq plummeting close to 5%, while the Russell 2000 index fell 4.5%, entering a bear market [4][9]. - The total market value of the "Tech Seven" companies in the U.S. evaporated by $840 billion (approximately 61,000 million RMB) [2][5]. - The VIX fear index surged over 28%, indicating heightened market anxiety [4]. Sector Performance - Technology and semiconductor stocks faced significant losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 5.64% to its lowest level since January 2024. Major companies like Apple, Meta, and Amazon saw declines of nearly 9%, over 7%, and over 6%, respectively [4][5]. - Chinese concept stocks also experienced a collective downturn, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling over 2% [5]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express growing concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a recession from 20% to 35% following the tariff announcements [15][16]. - The U.S. Treasury yield fell from 4.2% to 4.05%, reflecting increased recession fears as stock and bond yields began to move in tandem [15]. Central Bank Implications - The new tariffs are expected to complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they may lead to increased inflation while simultaneously raising recession concerns [22][23]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for interest rate cuts, delaying the next anticipated cut to March 2026 due to inflation risks associated with the tariffs [24][25]. Global Market Impact - European markets also faced significant declines, with major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 dropping over 3% [9][10]. - Asian markets followed suit, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling 2.77% and Vietnam's index plummeting 6.68% [10].