格隆汇APP·2025-04-03 09:02Market Performance - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.86% [1] - Market sentiment was low in the morning, with a brief rebound before maintaining fluctuations in the afternoon. Over 3,000 stocks fell, while 2,000 rose. The total trading volume increased to 1.13 trillion, up 163.1 billion from the previous day [1] Sector and Hotspot Analysis - The consumer sector outperformed, driven by the U.S. imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with cumulative tariffs on China expected to rise to 54%. This situation emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for the economy, with potential policy support for infrastructure and key industries [2] - Specific sectors like tourism, retail, liquor, and aquaculture saw significant gains, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai showing a stable annual performance (2024 revenue growth of 15.66%) boosting consumer confidence [2] - The electricity sector was positively impacted by electricity price reform policies, while real estate stocks surged due to housing development plans in Guangzhou [2] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, supported by expectations of innovative drug policies and performance catalysts [3] - Conversely, high export-oriented stocks plummeted, particularly in the technology sector, with significant declines in consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and AI applications [3] Market Influencing Factors - The tariff policy announced by Trump caused global market fluctuations, with the Chinese government indicating it would take countermeasures, leading to a partial recovery in market sentiment. A potential 54% tax rate could impact GDP by 1.2 percentage points, with a more significant effect on corporate profits [4] - The high tariffs may push the EU and ASEAN to strengthen cooperation with China [5] Future Tracking Points - Domestic policies aimed at expanding internal demand are expected to be intensified, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. The first quarter GDP growth is projected at 5.2%, with a decline anticipated in the second quarter, particularly affecting exports and corporate profits [7] - Ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs are crucial, as the potential for tariff adjustments remains uncertain [7] Fund Flow and Style Shift - There is a shift in funds from high-valuation technology stocks to defensive consumer and undervalued blue-chip stocks, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite. High-dividend sectors like banking and public utilities are gaining institutional attention [8] Institutional Views and Market Outlook - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue, with a balanced focus on first-quarter performance stocks and policy-driven consumer and technology sectors [9] - Long-term opportunities are seen in the consumer and cyclical sectors, benefiting from policy support and low valuation advantages [10] - The technology sector may present entry opportunities following adjustments, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics [11] Summary - The A-share market faced declines due to external tariff shocks and technology stock corrections, while defensive sectors like consumer and electricity showed resilience. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policy implementations and first-quarter performance validations, with recommendations for balanced allocations prioritizing undervalued blue chips and high-certainty industries, while remaining cautious of policy risks for high-export companies [12]