海外研究｜美国“对等关税”落地，但保留了谈判空间

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's announcement of a new round of "reciprocal tariffs," which raises the actual tariff rate on mainland China to 54%, exceeding market expectations of 10% [1][2]. Tariff Details - The tariffs on China are based on the existing 20% tariff, resulting in an effective rate of 54%, which is higher than the previously anticipated 10% [2]. - The reciprocal tariffs will affect several regions, with significant impacts on mainland China (34%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and Southeast Asian countries [2]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, effective April 3, but did not mention any additional tariffs related to value-added tax [2]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock futures dropped sharply, with the Nasdaq 100 futures falling over 3% [3]. - European assets initially rose but then retreated after the tariff announcement, while the euro and eurozone sovereign bond yields increased before declining [3][4]. - The offshore RMB weakened slightly, reaching 7.3, while gold prices remained strong despite fluctuations in the dollar [4]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that the displayed tariff differences may indicate a potential endpoint for U.S. tariff policy, but the actual execution may fall short of verbal communications [4]. - The market's fear regarding tariffs may have peaked, but uncertainty remains, particularly concerning the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations [5]. - Observations should focus on the shift in U.S.-China relations from "sanction-counter-sanction" to "managing differences-risk prevention," as this will continue to influence asset prices [5].