招商银行研究·2025-04-03 09:56Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated changes in industry prosperity by 2025, emphasizing the need for proactive measures in response to economic challenges and the evolving global landscape [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The monetary policy report for Q4 2024 indicates a balanced approach to internal and external factors, suggesting adjustments as necessary [3]. - Economic data from early 2025 shows a stable start supported by policy measures, with seasonal price declines noted in February [3]. - The impact of tariffs is still unfolding, with import and export data from January to February 2025 reflecting this uncertainty [3]. Capital Market Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve may resume easing policies, as indicated by CPI inflation data from early 2025, which shows persistent low inflation [4]. - The overall trend in A-shares is neutral to slightly bullish, with a focus on the long-term value of technology stocks [8]. Industry Commentary - The market reform for new energy grid prices is expected to stabilize revenue expectations, with operational strategies becoming a key competitive factor [11]. - The real estate market shows a weak rebound in new housing, while second-hand housing remains strong in key cities [11]. - The economic transformation driven by AI innovations, such as those from DeepSeek, is highlighted as a significant growth area [11]. - Consumer spending during the Spring Festival indicates a steady recovery, particularly in the film industry [11].