中金：如何判别成长行情走势？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the growth market, particularly focusing on the AI sector, and analyzes the factors influencing growth trends and investment strategies [2][4][57]. Group 1: Definition of Growth Industry - Growth industries are characterized by high growth potential and often exhibit high valuations in the A-share market, but their definitions evolve over time [2][11]. - The article categorizes growth styles into three main types: technology growth, manufacturing growth, and consumer growth, each with distinct performance characteristics [2][12]. Group 2: Factors Determining Growth Market - The decisive factor for growth markets is the industry trend and profit realization; a high prosperity industry is essential for a thriving growth market [3][22]. - The macro environment is not a decisive factor but can enhance the relative advantages of growth styles under favorable conditions [3][18]. - Important industry and regulatory policies serve as sufficient but non-essential conditions for the formation of growth markets [3][31]. - External factors, while less important than internal fundamentals, can influence domestic growth styles, particularly through global capital flows [3][4][57]. - Valuation does not determine the height of growth markets but can increase volatility once valuations reach relatively high levels [3][35]. - Sentiment indicators can provide short-term timing effects but have limited significance in the medium term [3][48]. - The market's leading capital influences growth styles significantly, with different investor preferences affecting market dynamics [3][40][41]. Group 3: Current AI Growth Market Analysis - The AI growth market is still in its early stages, with potential for performance realization in computing power and cloud services [4][57]. - The macro environment and supportive policies favor the AI growth market, while external uncertainties may impact global growth styles [4][57]. - Recent corrections in AI stocks have made valuations more attractive, providing potential investment opportunities [4][57]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies in AI - Index investment is recommended due to the uncertainty in technology innovation, allowing for natural selection among companies [5][71]. - Investment in the technology supply chain should follow a sequence, starting with "selling shovels" (infrastructure) before moving to application stages [6][71]. - The rise in global competitiveness of industries has significant market implications, as seen in the historical context of China's rise in the electric vehicle sector [6][7]. - Understanding the "overcapacity" issue is crucial, as not all supply-demand imbalances indicate inefficiency [7]. Group 5: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical trends from the smartphone and electric vehicle industries provide insights into the current AI market, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and profit cycles [58][59]. - The evolution of the smartphone market illustrates how component manufacturers can gain competitive advantages, which is relevant for AI infrastructure [59][60]. - The rise of China's electric vehicle industry showcases the benefits of a complete supply chain and market advantages, which can be mirrored in the AI sector [66][67].