一周研读｜关税落地，料A股回暖

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated recovery of A-shares following the implementation of tariffs, with expectations for a rebound in A-shares, a consolidation in Hong Kong stocks, and a recovery in U.S. stocks [2][5]. Market Dynamics Post-Tariff - The "tariff storm" is expected to lead to a clearer domestic policy direction in the second quarter, focusing on supply control and demand protection [5]. - Core assets have shown strong operational resilience, indicating a ripe opportunity for left-side positioning [5]. - Active capital has noticeably retreated, necessitating catalysts and time for industrial themes to build momentum [5]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests maintaining a focus on technology ignition, supply-side initiatives, and consumer demand supplementation [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying themes such as performance exceeding expectations, rising chemical raw material prices, and the U.S.-China geopolitical dynamics [5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The article introduces a "real investment" framework to capture investment opportunities during the economic transition, focusing on sectors like AI, smart driving, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, future energy, and advanced semiconductor processes [8]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to enter a short-term consolidation phase after a rapid valuation increase, with potential upward drivers including technological advancements and strong earnings guidance from leading internet and cloud companies [8]. Performance Outlook - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see steady growth in the textile and apparel, computer, and healthcare sectors, while the beverage and food sectors are expected to perform well in the second quarter [11]. - The beer industry is anticipated to return to growth in the first quarter of 2025, benefiting from low inventory and channel recovery [14]. - The overall consumer goods sector is expected to show improvement in the second quarter of 2025, driven by low base effects and demand recovery [15]. Economic Indicators - The article notes that the manufacturing PMI in March showed a rebound but remained below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [23]. - It highlights that the impact of tariffs is beginning to manifest in production, with expectations for policy measures to mitigate economic slowdown pressures in the second quarter [23].