行业比较｜年报、一季报的景气线索

Core Viewpoint - The performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 is expected to face pressure, particularly in the non-financial sector, while core assets represented by the CSI 300 show significant relative advantages [1][2]. Group 1: 2024 Annual Report Insights - As of March 30, approximately 70% of A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2024 annual report performance, with the overall net profit growth rate for the entire A-share market projected at -0.4% and -13.7% for the non-financial sector [2][3]. - The CSI 300 index is the only one expected to achieve positive net profit growth for both the full year and Q4, with a growth rate of 5.1% and 6.8% respectively, while other indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 show negative growth rates around -18.9% and -20.2% [2][3]. - Industries with positive net profit growth for both the full year and Q4 include non-bank financials, electronics, automotive, transportation, food, home appliances, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and banking [2][3]. Group 2: 2025 Q1 Performance Expectations - For Q1 2025, attention should be paid to mid-cycle data indicating improvements, particularly in upstream sectors like precious metals, industrial metals, and certain domestic demand categories in chemical and construction materials [11]. - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting replacement of old products, with durable goods like automobiles and home appliances showing steady growth [11]. - The technology sector's performance is anticipated to remain strong in traditional heavy asset manufacturing segments, with notable contributions from the electronics and communications industries [12]. Group 3: Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector is projected to remain a crucial support for A-share profitability in the short term, with banks maintaining an active credit issuance strategy and stable asset pricing [12]. - The insurance sector may face initial pressure on premium income but is expected to see improved investment returns due to a rebound in interest rates [12]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - The new delisting regulations effective from April 30, 2024, are expected to impact the financial performance of companies, particularly during the annual report season, with a significant number of companies having triggered financial delisting warnings in recent years [23].