达利欧谈特朗普“对等关税”以及该如何投资｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal" tariffs by Trump is expected to create significant stagflation pressure in the U.S. while leading to deflation or recession in the countries being taxed. Countries will utilize policy tools, primarily financial and fiscal policies, to make substantial adjustments to counteract the negative impacts of tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impacts - The first-order consequences of the tariff policies will result in notable stagflation in the U.S. and deflation or recession in the taxed countries [3]. - The second-order consequences will involve countries employing policy tools to mitigate the adverse effects of tariffs, with potential negotiations leading to adjustments in U.S. policies [3][4]. Group 2: Global Adjustments - Countries, including China, have announced reciprocal tariff measures, and there is a possibility of reaching an agreement between the U.S. and China to reduce trade conflict intensity, potentially through currency adjustments [3][4]. - If such an agreement occurs, China may adopt more accommodative financial and/or fiscal policies [3][4]. Group 3: Structural Changes - There is a need to address imbalances in production, trade, and capital, particularly concerning debt issues, as these are unsustainable in financial, economic, and geopolitical contexts [4][5]. - The adjustment process is likely to be accompanied by significant and unconventional changes, as detailed in the new book "How Countries Go Broke: the Big Cycle" [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to create a diversified and non-correlated asset allocation across different asset classes and regions, adjusting dynamically based on varying inflation and growth environments [7]. - The upcoming challenges and market reshuffling will serve as a test of investors' capabilities, with the ability to seize opportunities in uncertainty distinguishing truly exceptional investors [7].