【广发策略】不可胜在己，可胜在敌

Group 1 - The current situation between China and the US is significantly different from the previous trade conflict that began in 2018, with China having more room for policy maneuvering and asset price adjustments [1][14][43] - By early 2025, China's economic indicators such as PPI, real estate cycle, inventory cycle, and AH valuation are expected to be at historical lows, while fiscal expansion has considerable room for growth [2][15] - In contrast, the US economy in early 2025 is characterized by high deficit rates, debt levels, and interest expenditures, which limit further fiscal expansion, alongside a weak real estate recovery [19][20][21] Group 2 - The strategy for China involves enhancing domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and accelerating the development of new productive forces in technology, while waiting for increased domestic pressure in the US to explore negotiation opportunities [43] - Investment opportunities may arise from fiscal countermeasures, technology independence, and breaking through external demand channels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, military electronics, and the Belt and Road Initiative [43][61] Group 3 - The market is expected to respond positively to increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments and technology independence, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from fiscal stimulus [44][45] - The technology sector, particularly in consumer electronics and semiconductors, is anticipated to gradually desensitize to trade conflicts, as seen in previous cycles [48][57] - The diversification of export markets is a potential strategy, with a notable decrease in reliance on the US market and an increase in exports to Southeast Asia and other regions [61][63]