超级关税全球股市脆断，周期天王十年预言一语成箴

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent global tariff increases announced by the U.S. government, which have led to a significant downturn in global stock markets, particularly affecting the A-share market in China [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The previous week saw continued adjustments in the market, with the CSI 300 index declining by 1.37%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.28%, and the CSI 500 index falling by 1.19% [2]. Tariff Increases - The U.S. government announced specific tariff increases on April 3, with actual rates exceeding market expectations, particularly affecting traditional allies like the EU and Japan, which faced over 20% tariffs. In contrast, tariffs on China were more in line with prior expectations [3]. Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the tariff increases represent a comprehensive trade war initiated by the U.S., aligning with predictions made earlier in the year regarding a potential economic downturn in 2025, referred to as the "Kondratiev winter" [3]. Domestic Response - In response to the U.S. tariffs, China quickly implemented countermeasures, which are expected to exacerbate short-term global pessimism. The article suggests that China will also introduce fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the economic impact [3]. Technical Analysis - The market is currently in a downward adjustment phase, with a notable reduction in trading volume. Despite A-shares showing relative strength, the overall trend remains negative, influenced by the broader global market downturn [4]. Investment Strategy - The article recommends maintaining a medium position in both the main board and small-cap sectors while awaiting further details on China's fiscal and monetary responses to the tariff situation [4].