全球新能源电力，进入史诗级大周期｜深度

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of electricity supply in the development of AI technologies, highlighting the increasing energy demands of data centers and the potential of solar energy combined with storage solutions as a viable answer to these challenges [1][12][25]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and AI - The opening of the "Orion Solar Belt" project, the largest solar photovoltaic project in the U.S., aims to address the growing electricity needs of AI and data centers, with 875MW of clean energy production [1]. - AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, consume significantly more electricity than traditional services, with each response requiring about 2.9 watt-hours, which is nearly ten times that of a Google search [2][5]. - The energy consumption of AI models is escalating, with GPT-3 requiring 1287 MWh for a single training session, enough to power 3000 Tesla cars for 200,000 miles [8]. Group 2: Current Energy Infrastructure Challenges - The U.S. energy infrastructure is aging, with 70% of transformers over 25 years old, leading to vulnerabilities in electricity supply [19][22]. - Historical blackouts, such as the 2003 event affecting 50 million people, illustrate the fragility of the current power grid [14][15]. - The U.S. data center electricity consumption has surged from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023, projected to reach 325-580 TWh by 2028 [9]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Solutions - Solar energy combined with storage is viewed as the most feasible solution for powering data centers, with a cost of 0.35 yuan/kWh for a 100MW data center using solar and storage [26]. - The global renewable energy sector is expected to see a significant increase, with an estimated 580 GW of new solar and wind capacity added in 2024, five times the capacity in 2015 [27]. - The need for energy storage solutions is critical, as current storage capacity lags significantly behind renewable generation, with only 11.9% of storage capacity compared to solar and wind installations [27]. Group 4: Future of Energy Storage - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a demand for over 1 TWh of storage by 2030 in China alone [28]. - The economic viability of energy storage projects is currently challenged, with many projects showing negative returns on investment due to high costs and low utilization rates [31]. - The establishment of a robust electricity spot market is essential for improving the economic feasibility of energy storage, allowing for better price discovery and utilization of storage resources [41][45]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in registered companies, indicating a potential oversupply and intense competition [53][54]. - The industry faces challenges such as price wars and quality concerns, with calls for a focus on safety and technological innovation rather than just cost-cutting [54][55]. - Future competition in the storage sector will hinge on technological advancements, capital management, and global market strategies, as companies strive for leadership in the renewable energy landscape [55].