【商用车】2025年3月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and transformation of the new energy VAN market in China, highlighting key developments, market segmentation, and sales forecasts for the coming years [2][4][12]. Product Analysis - Jiangling Motors launched the "Blue Flame Power Platform," a new energy brand focusing on advanced technologies for diesel engines [2]. - The new energy small VAN market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 245,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.2% and a compound annual growth rate of 50.2% from 2019 to 2024 [4]. - In the first two months of 2025, sales reached 31,000 units, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 92.3% [4]. Market Segmentation - The new energy VAN market can be divided into three categories based on penetration rates: - A-class: 100% penetration, focusing solely on new energy products (e.g., Yuan Cheng, Rui Chi, Kai Rui) [6]. - B-class: 30%-60% penetration, balancing traditional fuel and new energy (e.g., Wuling, Changan, Foton, Dongfeng) [6]. - C-class: below 25% penetration, primarily traditional fuel vehicles (e.g., Jiangling, SAIC Maxus) [6]. A-Class Company Research - Yuan Cheng is developing small and medium VANs based on a pure electric platform, with rapid sales growth for its models [8]. B-Class Company Research - SAIC-GM-Wuling has historically focused on traditional fuel vehicles but is expanding its new energy offerings, with the Wuling Yangguang model expected to outperform competitors in pricing and space [10]. Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy for old vehicles is expected to stimulate demand for new energy vehicles, with significant potential for upgrading traditional fuel microbuses, as there are over 1.3 million units eligible for replacement [12]. Sales Forecast - The light commercial vehicle market is expected to see stable growth in 2025, with total sales projected at 2.82 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [16].