“申”度解盘 | 四月：静观其变、等待时机

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent market adjustments, particularly in the U.S. stock market, on domestic capital markets, highlighting the need for policy responses to stimulate economic recovery and address tariff impacts [4][9]. Market Review - In March 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.45%, closing at 3,335.75 points, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.07% to 3,887.31 points [6][8]. - Daily trading volume in Shanghai decreased significantly, with an average of 5,955 billion yuan, down 15.3% from February [8]. - The highest and lowest points for the Shanghai Composite Index in March were 3,439.05 and 3,297.53, respectively, aligning with expectations [6][8]. April Market Analysis and Outlook Tariff Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to adjustments in the U.S. stock market, which in turn affects domestic market expectations, particularly for technology stocks [4][9]. Economic Data Verification - April is a critical month for assessing economic conditions as the effects of the Spring Festival fade, and quarterly reports from listed companies are released, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape [4][13]. - There is a noted decline in fiscal revenue growth, raising concerns about the effectiveness of fiscal policies and the need for measures to stimulate domestic consumption [13]. Equity Risk Premium - As of March 2025, the equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index was recorded at 6.63, slightly down from February, remaining near historical averages [5][15]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% dropped significantly to 215 in March, a 70% decrease, indicating a contraction in market profitability [5][17]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance and is testing support levels from mid-term moving averages, with a notable drop after reaching a peak in mid-March [19]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index fell below its 120-day moving average for the first time since the market rally began in September of the previous year, indicating potential pressure at higher levels [21].