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A股资产具备反弹基础!十余家公募,火速解读
券商中国·2025-04-07 14:21

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent tariff increases announced by the U.S. on global financial markets, particularly the A-share market, which experienced substantial declines. Despite the short-term volatility, there is a belief in the resilience of the A-share market in the medium to long term due to supportive policies and domestic demand [1][2][10]. Impact of Tariffs - The tariff impact is primarily seen in three areas: 1. Export chain effects, with industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. facing order reductions and increased costs [3]. 2. Rising inflation risks in the U.S. due to increased tariffs, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, thereby affecting global liquidity and high-valuation growth stocks [3]. 3. Supply chain restructuring pressures as the U.S. aims to bring manufacturing back, raising concerns about industry shifts and market risk appetite [3][10]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcements, the A-share market saw a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 7.34%, the Shenzhen Component down 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 12.5% [1]. - Central Huijin Investment expressed confidence in the Chinese capital market, indicating plans to increase holdings in ETFs to stabilize the market [1]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Fund managers noted that the recent tariff increases have heightened market uncertainty, leading to a retreat in risk appetite. They expect that the market's excessive panic will be corrected as monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and consumption subsidies are anticipated [4][5][10]. - The market is currently in a performance verification phase, with expectations that domestic policies will be accelerated to counteract external uncertainties [7][10]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the immediate challenges posed by the tariffs, the Chinese stock market is viewed as having favorable conditions compared to previous years, with a focus on domestic demand and supportive macro policies [5][11]. - The article emphasizes that the A-share market has significant potential for recovery and growth in the medium to long term, driven by strong economic resilience and favorable policy adjustments [10][11]. Investment Strategies - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors such as domestic consumption, agriculture, and food and beverage, which have shown relative strength amid the market turmoil [7][8]. - The article suggests that high-dividend and value stocks may provide better stability during periods of increased market volatility [8][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is expected to experience volatility due to the tariff impacts, particularly on hardware products. However, the importance of self-sufficiency in technology is highlighted as a key focus area for future growth [13]. - The article also notes that the current market adjustment may present opportunities for investment in sectors supported by domestic policies and technological advancements [11][13].