“对等关税”影响几何，投资如何应对？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy on global financial markets, highlighting significant declines in U.S. stock indices and drawing historical parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which had devastating effects on global trade and the economy [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices experienced declines of 4.84% and 5.41% on April 3, and further drops of 5.97% and 6.07% on April 4, with the Nasdaq 100 entering a technical bear market with a total decline of 21.55% since February 20 [2][4]. - In contrast, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed relatively milder declines, with the CSI All Share Index and Hang Seng Index falling by 0.78% and 1.52% respectively on April 3 [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article references the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a 67% drop in global trade from $36 billion to $12 billion between 1929 and 1933, and a 68% decline in U.S. exports from $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.6 billion in 1932 [6][12]. - The historical context emphasizes that trade wars can lead to severe economic downturns and a breakdown of multilateral cooperation, which could have long-lasting implications [6][12]. Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. has set high tariff rates as a negotiation tactic, aiming to reshape international trade rules and compel other nations to make concessions on tariffs, market access, and regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The article suggests that both the U.S. and its trading partners are likely to engage in negotiations rather than escalating trade conflicts indefinitely, given their interdependent economic relationships [10][11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The potential worst-case scenario involves escalating tariff retaliation leading to a significant contraction in global trade, reminiscent of the 1930s, which could result in economic stagnation and structural shortages, ultimately pushing parties back to the negotiation table [12][14]. - Despite the negative impacts of tariff increases on economic growth, the article notes that consumption and investment could offset some of the adverse effects, with public spending becoming a crucial factor in mitigating economic downturns [14]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article advises maintaining a solid fixed-income position as a safety net, suggesting that a 50% allocation to equities should be the ceiling for ordinary investors, with higher allocations to fixed income providing better risk mitigation during market downturns [16]. - It also recommends diversifying investments across different asset classes to smooth out volatility and improve overall portfolio performance [16][17].