中信证券｜中国对美反制力度明显升级

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant escalation of China's countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariffs, highlighting the equal coverage of tariffs and the depth of export controls, indicating a more robust stance from China compared to previous rounds of trade disputes [1][2][3]. Tariff Measures - On April 4, 2025, China announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S., matching the U.S. tariff coverage [2][3]. - The previous rounds of tariffs from the U.S. had a much higher coverage ratio compared to China's responses, which were 11.5% and 14.7% respectively [3]. Export Controls - China implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, marking the first use of such measures in the current trade conflict [3][4]. - Rare earth elements are crucial for military and high-tech industries, with China holding a 67.9% share of global rare earth production in 2023 [3][4]. Variety of Countermeasures - The range of countermeasures has expanded, including the suspension of import qualifications for six U.S. companies due to health and safety concerns [4][5]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that U.S. tariffs may experience fluctuations, with attention needed on statements from key advisors like Navarro and Lighthizer [5]. - Three factors could influence future developments: the response of other countries, changes in U.S. domestic polling, and the stance of Congress as public opinion shifts [5]. Market Strategy - The uncertainty in the market has increased, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite, prompting a focus on core assets and self-sufficiency [6][7]. - A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong and U.S. stocks due to the structure of investors [7]. Sector Focus - The agricultural sector is identified as a direct beneficiary of the counter-tariff measures, with expectations of rising prices for agricultural products [10][11]. - The machinery sector is anticipated to accelerate domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in high-end manufacturing [12][13]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The negative impact of China's counter-tariff policies on the U.S. economy is expected to be concentrated in agriculture, oil and gas, aerospace, and electronics sectors [9]. - U.S. exports to China are heavily reliant on agriculture, with significant portions of soybean and corn exports directed to China [9][10].