晨报｜关税余波尚存，聚焦核心资产

Core Views - The ongoing tariff situation remains uncertain, with recession expectations accelerating the shift to recession trading, potentially leading to synchronized cycles between China and the US [1] - Short-term focus should be on core assets, with a recommendation to concentrate on sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, domestic demand, and dividends [1][5] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump significantly exceeds expectations, with a potential 34% tariff on China impacting exports and GDP growth [2][5] Economic Impact - The anticipated 54% increase in tariffs since Trump's presidency could reduce China's export growth by 8.2 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points if the tariffs remain in place throughout the year [2] - Domestic policies are expected to respond with counter-cyclical measures to ensure stable economic development [2][5] Sector Analysis - Core assets are expected to outperform, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate resilience and competitive advantages, particularly in manufacturing and technology [1][5] - The agricultural sector may benefit from rising prices due to retaliatory measures, while the machinery sector should focus on resilient end-demand and competitive supply structures [5] - The banking sector is showing defensive value amid rising market volatility, with stable fundamentals expected to support performance [18] Market Strategy - The strategy suggests a shift towards low-valuation sectors with strong earnings certainty, particularly in consumer themes, agriculture, and semiconductor materials [9] - The focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency is emphasized as external pressures increase [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in core assets as the market adjusts to external shocks, with a recommendation for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy [1] - The energy sector, particularly airlines, is expected to see improved margins due to falling oil prices, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [13]