张忆东策略世界·2025-04-07 06:12Investment Highlights - The article emphasizes that the recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market do not alter the underlying bullish logic, with internal factors being the key determinants of the market's long-term trends [1][3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The international political and economic landscape is increasingly unstable, with China focusing on building a dual-circulation economic development model to stabilize global economic growth [2][24]. - China's external circulation aims to promote an open world economy and combat protectionism, leveraging its comprehensive industrial system to enhance cooperation with non-U.S. countries [2][24]. - The internal circulation is expected to see increased policy support, with the central bank and relevant ministries indicating that there is still room for policy maneuvering [2][28]. - China is projected to become a significant consumer market, with the real estate sector expected to stabilize by 2025, thereby releasing substantial domestic demand potential [2][30]. Stock Market Fundamentals - The continuation of the current bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market hinges on the development of technology and new consumption sectors, which now account for 54.5% of the total market capitalization [2][40]. - The rise of AI technology is seen as a pivotal factor for the Hong Kong bull market, with historical precedents indicating that technology-driven market trends can last for several years [2][41][47]. - Emerging consumption trends, particularly among younger generations, are expected to drive rapid growth in new consumption sectors, supported by a strong domestic market [2][51][53]. Investment Strategy - The short-term strategy suggests a defensive approach while waiting for external risks to subside, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio [2][55]. - In the medium term, the strategy is to remain bullish, taking advantage of market corrections to accumulate strategic assets, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [2][55][56].