【农林牧渔】养殖规模化加速，结构性成长可期——光大证券生猪养殖行业深度报告（李晓渊）

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in China's pig farming industry, drawing parallels with the scale-up process in the U.S. pig farming sector [3]. Group 1: Cost and Efficiency - The acceleration of scale in pig farming is expected to lead to significant improvements in farming efficiency, resulting in a decrease in actual costs during the scale-up phase [3]. - After the completion of scale-up, innovations in farming technology will continue to enhance efficiency, although the overall optimization rate may slow down [3]. Group 2: Price Cycles - The scale-up of pig farming is projected to lengthen the price fluctuation cycles, with some irregularities, but it will not completely eliminate these cycles [3]. - The amplitude of price fluctuations may not necessarily narrow with the development of scale; in fact, during the acceleration phase, the downward price fluctuation amplitude is expected to increase [3]. Group 3: Profitability - The acceleration of scale may lead to a convergence in average farming profitability across the industry, but profitability is expected to recover post-scale completion [3]. - As cost advantages among enterprises converge, the trend of excess profits for leading companies may narrow [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - High-cost farming entities are likely to exit the market over multiple cycles, while those with excess returns will have the potential for growth [4]. - Marginal costs will determine the expansion boundaries for enterprises, with resources such as breeding stock, land, personnel, and capital playing crucial roles in their ability to expand [4].