吴晓波：机器人会是下一个十万亿级产业吗？

Core Viewpoint - China is predicted to dominate humanoid robot manufacturing, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar industry in the future [1][21][22]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The humanoid robot factory of Zhiyuan in Shanghai is currently the largest in China, with an annual assembly capacity of 5,000 units [5]. - The factory originally produced vacuum cleaning robots and was transformed to manufacture humanoid robots in November of the previous year [5]. - The humanoid robots produced are equipped with advanced testing equipment developed in-house, and the assembly process is primarily manual [3][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Zhiyuan has adopted a high-cost "real machine data collection mode," which requires extensive training for robots to perform simple tasks, resulting in the completion of hundreds of millions of data collections annually [7]. - The company recently launched its second-generation Lingxi robot X2 and the first "robot universal base model" [9]. Group 3: Market Potential - China holds approximately 63% of the global humanoid robot industry share, with expectations that it will remain a primary manufacturing and R&D center due to its large pool of engineers, diverse application scenarios, and robust supply chain [21]. - The intelligent robot manufacturing sector is anticipated to become the fourth trillion-dollar industry in China, following automotive, real estate, and elder care industries [22]. Group 4: Challenges and Observations - Despite the industry's growth, many companies, including the leading one, generated only about 300 million yuan in revenue last year, indicating a low income level across the sector [25]. - Several fundamental challenges remain, such as the lack of practical application scenarios for humanoid robots, deficiencies in current data collection methods, and the absence of a universally accepted standard for embodied intelligence models [26].