在贪婪与恐惧之外，霍华德·马克斯谈当下该如何应对

Core Viewpoint - The current global economic environment is undergoing significant disruption due to trade tensions and tariff escalations, leading to unprecedented uncertainty about future market conditions [1][8][29]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The credit market currently offers better investment opportunities compared to stocks, with high-yield bonds yielding approximately 8%, up from 7.2% six weeks ago [2][3]. - The stock market has experienced a decline of approximately 15% to 17% recently, attributed to a deteriorating macroeconomic environment [4][5]. - The extent of the stock market decline raises questions about whether the drop is excessive, appropriate, or insufficient, but no one can definitively answer this [6][18]. Group 2: Trade and Globalization - The shift towards protectionism and trade restrictions marks a significant paradigm shift from the era of free trade and globalization, which has historically contributed to economic prosperity [8][9]. - The benefits of trade include specialization and cost advantages, which enhance global welfare; a move away from trade could lead to decreased living standards [9][10]. - The potential for sustained inflation exists as global supply chains that have historically kept prices low are disrupted by tariffs and trade barriers [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions present a "market dislocation" scenario, where asset prices may not accurately reflect future risks and returns [17][18]. - Investors must assess whether current price declines represent a buying opportunity or if further adjustments are necessary, as this judgment cannot be quantified [19][20]. - The historical average annual return for stocks is around 10%, but with the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 19, future returns may be lower than historical averages [13][14]. Group 4: U.S. Investment Landscape - The U.S. remains a potentially attractive investment destination, but its advantages have diminished due to weakening rule of law, predictability of outcomes, and fiscal challenges [33]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt could complicate its investment appeal, especially if global sentiment shifts against the dollar [33].