降准降息将择机而动！一批储备政策在路上

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential monetary policy responses from China in light of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trade partners, focusing on the timing of interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has ample room to adjust monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, which can be implemented as needed [2][3]. - The PBOC is committed to supporting the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in stabilizing the capital market by increasing investments in stock market index funds and providing sufficient relending support when necessary [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the timing for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions will depend on various dynamic factors, including exchange rates, long-term bond rates, and bank interest margins [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Forecasts - The article highlights that China's export market has diversified, reducing reliance on the U.S., which may mitigate the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" [6]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC may implement two RRR cuts in the second or third quarter, releasing more liquidity into the market [6][7]. - The expected interest rate cut could range from 20 to 50 basis points, with a potential reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 30 to 60 basis points [7]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - There is anticipation for the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting consumption and stabilizing external trade [9][12]. - The PBOC is exploring the establishment of consumption-related structural monetary policy tools to enhance financial support for consumer credit and stimulate consumption [12][13]. - The "Huanxin Loan" initiative is mentioned as a new financing product that encourages banks to utilize long-term government bond subsidies to support the consumption upgrade cycle [13].