专家访谈汇总：加征关税，或促使美联储降息

Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The "reciprocal" tariffs mentioned by Trump encompass tariffs, value-added taxes, and non-tariff barriers, indicating a broad scope for tariff increases [1] - Countries such as Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), and India (26%) are identified as major targets for the new tariffs [1] - The potential one-time CPI shock from tariffs may be countered by a demand decline, leading to a deflationary effect that could prompt further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - China may respond to the unexpected tariff increases by enhancing domestic demand policies, such as providing childcare subsidies and urban village renovations [1] - Short-term adjustments in the US stock market are anticipated due to tariffs and economic recession, but more opportunities may arise in the second half of the year, especially with the implementation of monetary and tax stimulus policies [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and Trade Uncertainty - Trump's memorandum on tariffs requires "complete reciprocity" in tariff rates with major trading partners, including China, effective from April 2, 2025 [2] - From March 12, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all imported steel and aluminum, and a similar tariff will apply to automobiles starting April 2, 2025 [2] - The export sales ratio for sectors like analog chip design (+21.3%) and digital chip design (+16.4%) has increased significantly from 2018 to 2023, while semiconductor materials (-20.7%) and optical components (-13.4%) have seen declines [2] Group 3: PCB Market Dynamics - The global AI server market is projected to reach $187 billion by 2024, accounting for 65% of the global server market, with a year-on-year growth of 69% [3] - The Chinese server market is expected to reach $5 billion in the first half of 2024, growing by 63% year-on-year, and is projected to reach $25.3 billion by 2028 [3] - The demand for PCBs is anticipated to rise due to the higher requirements of AI servers, including increased layer counts and faster transmission speeds [3] - The global PCB market in the server sector is expected to grow from $8.2 billion in 2023 to $13.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Implications of Tariffs - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US reflects the wealth accumulation pressure faced by the country and indicates a shift in global trade dynamics [4] - Major asset classes, including stocks, currencies, and commodities, have experienced varying degrees of downward pressure since the announcement of the tariffs [4] - Countries with complete industrial chains are expected to have a competitive advantage in the changing economic landscape [4] Group 5: Trade Deficit and Policy Responses - The new tariff standards will reference pre-Trump tariff levels, including the most-favored-nation rates and previous 301 tariffs, with an additional 20% tariff based on the fentanyl issue [5] - Major trade deficit sources for the US include China ($295.4 billion), the EU ($235.6 billion), and Mexico ($171.8 billion) [5] - China may increase the fluctuation space of its currency to stabilize export competitiveness in response to US tariffs [5] - To counter economic downturn pressures, China might issue special government bonds to support new industries and commercial banks [5]