2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（全版）

Policy, Industry, and Financing - The two sessions have set the tone for "stabilizing the real estate market" and "building good houses," promoting a collaborative approach to supply and demand for transformation [2][3] - The government aims to stabilize market expectations, prevent risks, and promote transformation through coordinated management of supply and demand, product quality upgrades, financial support, and risk prevention [3][4] - In 2025, the government will focus on supporting demand, managing inventory, coordinating financing, and upgrading products in the real estate sector [5][6] - Local governments have introduced 124 policies across 66 provinces and cities to implement central market stabilization requirements, emphasizing the construction of quality housing and optimizing supply-side management [14][19] Market Trends - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with key indicators such as development investment, funding, and sales showing a narrowing decline compared to previous years [29][31] - In the first two months of 2025, new residential sales area and sales amount increased by 1.3% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [29][31] - The housing inventory growth rate has narrowed to below 10% for the first time since 2022, suggesting a potential decline in unsold housing inventory within the year [29][31] Financing Environment - The financial environment for real estate is improving, with the central bank and financial regulatory authorities focusing on stabilizing financing, mitigating risks, and promoting transformation [12][18] - The financing coordination mechanism has been expanded to ensure that more eligible projects receive loans, supporting the construction of a new model for real estate development [12][18] - Innovative financial tools are being introduced to enhance liquidity for real estate companies, including special government bonds and REITs expansion into commercial real estate [12][18] Local Government Initiatives - Local policies are focusing on quality upgrades, demand activation, and inventory management, with specific measures to lower purchasing thresholds and optimize housing fund policies [19][20] - Various provinces and cities are implementing subsidies and tax incentives to stimulate demand, including down payment reductions and purchase subsidies for high-level talent [15][19] - The construction of affordable housing is being prioritized, with cities like Shanghai and Chongqing expanding their affordable housing projects and improving rental guarantees [20][21]