Uber：自动驾驶真能杀死“美版滴滴”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of autonomous driving technology on the ride-hailing industry, particularly focusing on Uber's current valuation and market position amidst the evolving landscape of autonomous vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Autonomous Driving on Ride-Hailing Demand - Autonomous driving technology primarily reduces the labor and associated costs of driving, but it is unlikely to significantly increase the overall demand for ride-hailing services [5][6]. - The structure of ride-hailing demand is expected to change, with private car usage increasing and public transport declining, while ride-hailing's share remains stable [9][10]. - The pandemic has shifted commuting patterns, with a notable increase in remote work, affecting the demand for various transportation modes [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The introduction of autonomous ride-hailing services is anticipated to capture a significant portion of public transport usage, potentially increasing the market size for ride-hailing by approximately 40% [17][18]. - The competition landscape will shift as autonomous vehicle technology providers may either compete directly with existing platforms or collaborate with them [27][31]. - The pricing strategies of ride-hailing platforms will be crucial, as lower prices could lead to increased usage but may compress profit margins [23][24]. Group 3: Uber's Valuation and Future Outlook - Current estimates suggest that Uber's valuation does not reflect a significant discount, with projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 indicating a neutral market sentiment [50][51]. - The potential impact of autonomous driving on Uber's business model includes a decrease in average revenue per ride and a shift in profit distribution between platforms and vehicle operators [58][59]. - The article posits that Uber's market share may stabilize around 60% by 2031, with the emergence of new competitors in the autonomous ride-hailing space [55][56].