Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariff policies on the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, highlighting the significant increase in tariffs on various components, particularly lithium batteries, which could reshape competitive dynamics in the industry [2][4]. Tariff Impact on Electric Vehicle Supply Chain - The U.S. has implemented a 25% tariff on cars, engines, transmissions, and lithium batteries, leading to a cumulative tariff of 73.4% on power batteries and 64.9% on energy storage batteries [2]. - The overall tariff on new energy vehicles has reached 147.5%, which diminishes the competitive advantage of domestic battery manufacturers exporting to the U.S. [2][4]. Current Export Situation - In 2024, China is expected to export 116,000 vehicles to the U.S., accounting for only 1.81% of total exports, with electric vehicles making up an even smaller share [4]. - China’s lithium battery exports to the U.S. are projected to be $15.315 billion (approximately 110 billion RMB), representing 25% of total lithium battery exports, despite a 16% decline in export volume [4]. Impact on Battery and Material Companies - The tariff policies primarily affect the profitability of energy storage businesses in the U.S., but short-term impacts are mitigated as the market remains dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries [5]. - Domestic material companies have limited direct exports to the U.S., with most exports going to Japan and South Korea, where they face similar tariff pressures [5][6]. Future Production Capacity - Domestic companies are gradually establishing production capacities in the U.S., with several firms expected to begin operations between 2026 and 2027, targeting nearly 100 GWh of capacity [6]. - As U.S. production capacity increases, the impact of tariffs is expected to diminish over time [6]. Indirect Effects on Domestic Market - The tariffs may lead to a shift in domestic production and pricing strategies, as companies with cost advantages are better positioned to withstand tariff pressures [7]. - The article suggests that some international orders may return to China, potentially increasing domestic production levels, but this could also create pressure on capacity planning and pricing strategies [8]. Long-term Strategic Considerations - The need for diversified manufacturing and supply chain strategies is emphasized, as companies must adapt to potential future tariff impacts and explore local market opportunities [8].
关税“海啸”冲击 电池产业链影响如何？
高工锂电·2025-04-08 10:35