研报 | 美国关税政策影响下，2025年全球终端市场增长预期趋缓

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the new U.S. tariff policy on various technology sectors, particularly AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks, leading to a downward revision of shipment forecasts for 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a new tariff policy on April 2, which allows exemptions for manufactured goods with over 20% U.S. value, affecting the supply chain and production costs [1]. - TrendForce's analysis indicates that the 2025 shipment forecasts for AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks have been revised downward due to the tariff implications [1][4]. Group 2: Shipment Forecasts - AI Server shipments are expected to grow by 24.5% in the base case scenario, down from a previous forecast of 28.3%, reflecting a decrease in demand due to tariffs [2][4]. - Server shipments are projected to increase by 5.4% in the base case, down from 6.9%, with a worst-case scenario predicting only a 2% increase due to broader tariff implications [2][5]. - Smartphone production is expected to remain flat in the base case, down from a previous growth forecast of 1.5%, with a potential decline of 5% in a worst-case scenario [2][5]. - Notebook shipments are forecasted to grow by 3% in the base case, down from 5%, with a worst-case scenario predicting a 2% increase [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Companies are adjusting their strategies in response to the tariff policy, with U.S. brands increasing shipments to the U.S. and non-U.S. brands delaying shipments to assess policy changes [6]. - The overall market uncertainty is expected to limit demand for consumer electronics and commercial replacements, impacting growth rates across various segments [6].