中金：“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government has led to significant market volatility, with major declines in U.S. stock markets and other asset classes, indicating a potential liquidity shock and a loss of confidence in the global economic order [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" are extensive, applying a baseline 10% tariff on all trade partners, with effective rates potentially rising above 23%, marking a historical high [2][6][10]. - Specific countries facing higher tariffs include Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), and China (34%), among others, with exemptions for certain goods [3][11]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., with estimates suggesting a rise in inflation by 1.5-2 percentage points, potentially leading to a GDP drag of approximately 0.7 percentage points [20][21][27]. - The effective tax rate on imports has already increased from 2.3% to 5.7% prior to the tariffs, and is projected to rise significantly due to the new measures [10][6]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 5% in two days, reflecting heightened risk premiums and investor uncertainty [1][30]. - The volatility has also affected other asset classes, including commodities like oil and gold, while the U.S. dollar has shown signs of pressure due to long-term policy confidence issues [1][34]. Sector-Specific Effects - Industries with significant exposure to U.S.-China trade, such as electronics and consumer goods, are likely to face substantial impacts, with potential declines in earnings growth for affected sectors [38][44]. - The tariffs may lead to a reevaluation of supply chains, with companies potentially seeking to mitigate risks through diversification or relocation of production [41][46]. Global Implications - Emerging markets, particularly those with high exposure to U.S. exports like Vietnam and Thailand, are expected to experience significant economic impacts, with potential currency depreciation and capital outflows [45][49]. - The overall sentiment in global markets is likely to remain cautious, with investors closely monitoring the developments in tariff negotiations and retaliatory measures from affected countries [12][37].