张忆东最新观点：美股已进入熊市，黄金遭遇流动性冲击，中国市场可积极防御，中期关注三类机会

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is facing a systemic risk, characterized as a short but intense storm, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear phase. However, this does not imply that all global markets will follow suit, as China's capital market may present mid-term opportunities after a short-term risk assessment [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has clearly entered a bear phase, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, which have detrimental effects on global wealth [4][13]. - Recent declines in gold and Bitcoin indicate a shift in market logic from risk aversion to liquidity shocks [5][15]. - The VIX volatility index and other indicators suggest that short-term liquidity concerns are overshadowing market sentiment [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economy is expected to face recession, with inflation risks likely to rise in the second half of the year [7][20]. - The impact of tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth over 25 years, with a potential 1% decline this year [20]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to market conditions will be significantly less than in 2020, limiting its capacity for quantitative easing [8][21]. Group 3: China Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market's performance will depend on internal factors and fundamental conditions rather than external shocks [9][26]. - China's risk premium is currently at a historical high, indicating that the economy may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery once policies are implemented [27][28]. - The mid-term outlook for China's capital market is optimistic, driven by technological advancements and new consumption trends [28][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on active defense, avoiding leverage, and waiting for market stabilization before making significant investments [40][41]. - Strategic asset allocation should prioritize technology, new consumption sectors, and traditional assets like gold and military stocks [43]. - The current market environment presents a unique opportunity for value investment, particularly in the context of China's economic resilience and potential recovery [38][44].