农林牧渔｜反制关税提振农产品价格，种植链直接受益

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural planting industry chain is a scarce and directly benefited sector under the counter-tariff measures, highlighting the extreme importance of food security and the need for self-sufficiency in seed sources, which is expected to receive strong policy support [1][3][7]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Measures - The recent tariff measures have introduced new variables in China-US agricultural trade, with the US imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff and a 34% reciprocal tariff on China [2]. - China is the largest export market for US agricultural products, with significant exports of soybeans and corn, accounting for 50% and 15% of total US exports respectively in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Food Security and Self-Sufficiency - The importance of food security has been underscored by the current international trade risks affecting China's agricultural imports, particularly from the US, which remains a key supplier for specific products like soybeans and sorghum [3][4]. - The self-sufficiency in seed sources is deemed crucial for ensuring national food security, with the seed and grain planting sectors likely to receive robust policy support [3][7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Opportunities - The counter-tariff measures are expected to significantly raise the import prices of soybeans, corn, and sorghum from the US, leading to a reduction in import volumes [4]. - Short-term market sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals are anticipated to drive up domestic prices for soybean meal and other protein meals, benefiting the seed and grain planting sectors and leading to performance growth for related companies [4][7]. - The agricultural processing sector is expected to see structural opportunities, with certain companies benefiting from inventory recovery, cost advantages from low-priced raw materials, and price transmission to finished products [4].