光大证券研究·2025-04-07 08:46Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports by China is expected to benefit domestic blood product companies, as it may lead to a price increase for imported human albumin, thereby enhancing the market share of domestic products [3][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The demand for blood products is relatively inelastic, and the tariff is unlikely to significantly affect overall demand due to its essential nature [4]. - China imports over 60% of its human albumin products, with the U.S. being a major supplier, exporting $54.6 billion in blood products in 2024 [4]. - The price of imported human albumin is expected to rise, reducing its competitive advantage over domestic products, which may lead to an increase in market share for local companies [5]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - As of April 6, 2025, domestic human albumin prices are slightly higher than imported ones, but the tariff may eliminate the price advantage of imports [5]. - For example, the price range for imported human albumin (10g specification) is between 345-438 RMB, while domestic products range from 359-580 RMB [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Industry Structure - The blood product industry is characterized by a limited number of manufacturers, creating an oligopoly with companies like Tian Tan Bio, Shanghai Raist, and Hualan Biological [6]. - The industry is less affected by geopolitical risks due to its self-sufficient supply chain and the nature of its products [6][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions may enhance the internal circulation advantages of the blood product industry, supporting its long-term growth prospects [7].