【安泰科】多晶硅周评—硅料成交清淡，价格有下跌预期（2025年4月9日）

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes and price stagnation, with a pessimistic outlook due to insufficient downstream purchasing demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 39,000-45,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 CNY/ton. For n-type granular silicon, the price range is 38,000-41,000 CNY/ton, averaging 39,000 CNY/ton. The p-type polysilicon price range is 32,000-36,000 CNY/ton, with an average of 34,000 CNY/ton [1]. - Most polysilicon enterprises report a lack of downstream purchasing demand, making it difficult to secure orders for April. The market is currently in a stalemate, with few transactions and a general reluctance to sign new contracts [1]. - The stability in prices is primarily due to insufficient actual transaction data, despite some major manufacturers lowering their external quotes. The industry believes that the apparent price stability is temporary, as new orders have not yet materialized [1]. Group 2: Production and Supply - As of now, all operating polysilicon enterprises in China are running at reduced capacity, with one additional enterprise entering maintenance this month, slightly alleviating price pressure [2]. - In March 2024, China's polysilicon production reached 105,500 tons, with growth attributed to production line optimization and normal production fluctuations. The production forecast for April is maintained at around 105,000 tons [2].