Verizon：在第一季度财报公布前，公司并不太看好业绩

Core Viewpoint - Verizon has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving over 6% positive returns year-to-date, contrasting with a 14% decline in the broader market [1] Financial Performance - Verizon has consistently met or exceeded earnings expectations for the past 10 quarters, averaging a 1.4% beat per quarter, but has only exceeded revenue expectations 50% of the time, with an average revenue miss of 0.2% per quarter [2] - Key metrics to watch for the upcoming first quarter include expected revenue of $33.3 billion and a standardized EPS of $1.15, with anticipated year-over-year revenue growth of less than 1% [4] - The company is facing increased competitive pressure from AT&T and T-Mobile, which may lead to higher customer churn rates and stagnant postpaid net additions despite a strong fourth quarter [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - Verizon's management is focusing on enhancing customer experience through initiatives like the myPlan and personalized services, which may help mitigate potential user growth challenges [6] - Price increases are expected to generate approximately $1 billion in incremental revenue, with wireless service revenue projected to grow 2-2.8% year-over-year [6] Debt and Cash Flow - Verizon has a significant debt burden of $144 billion, with 82% being unsecured, leading to scrutiny over its ability to generate free cash flow [7] - Expected free cash flow for FY25 is projected to decline by about 9% to $18 billion, with cash dividend outflows potentially reaching $11.5 billion [8][9] Valuation and Market Position - Verizon's current dividend yield of over 6% is attractive but not significantly better than the industry average of 6.2% [9][10] - The stock's forward valuation is not considered cheap, trading at a premium compared to its five-year average rolling P/E ratio of 8.4 times [12] - Expected EPS growth for the year is less than 2%, resulting in a high PEG ratio of over 5, indicating that the current premium may not be justified [14]