纽柯钢铁：忽略短期噪音很重要

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is experiencing significant attention due to recent tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with a potential shift of production back to domestic markets, creating investment opportunities in major U.S. steel producers like Nucor, Steel Dynamics, U.S. Steel, and Cleveland-Cliffs [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategies - Nucor Steel is recognized as one of the most profitable companies in its sector, yet its stock performance over the past five years has been underwhelming [3]. - Nucor's current price relative to its EBITDA margin is considered low, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.8, indicating that future profit margin declines are already factored in [5]. - Nucor has the lowest forward EV/EBITDA multiple among its peers, while also being one of the strongest in terms of EBITDA profitability [6]. - Nucor's focus on organic growth contrasts sharply with Cleveland-Cliffs' aggressive acquisition strategy, which has negatively impacted its profitability [10]. - Nucor's capital expenditures for FY2024 are nearly five times that of Cleveland-Cliffs, highlighting the differences in their growth strategies [14]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Market Position - Nucor maintains a leading position in asset return rates (ROTA) within the industry, while U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs have shown less stability in ROTA over the years [15]. - Nucor's leverage ratio (total debt to EBITDA) is 1.6, ranking second lowest among peers, providing a more favorable position for shareholders during economic downturns [18]. - Despite a significant decline in operating cash flow in 2024 due to falling steel prices and demand fluctuations, Nucor's management continues to invest in operations and downstream businesses rather than cutting capital expenditures [18][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Approximately 50% of Nucor's sales come from the construction and infrastructure sectors, which are less affected by economic cycles compared to residential construction [21]. - Nucor's reliance on electric arc furnaces (EAF) makes it highly sensitive to scrap metal prices, posing a risk to its cost structure [24]. - The tightening of the scrap metal market is a significant risk for Nucor, as the supply of quality scrap is becoming increasingly inelastic while demand continues to grow [28][30]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite the risks, Nucor Steel is considered one of the most attractive stocks in the steel sector, appealing to long-term investors [30].