中金 • 联合研究 | 服务贸易增长加快，金融地产边际回暖 ——香港经济金融季报

Economic Overview - In Q4 2024, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating an acceleration in economic growth compared to Q3 2024 [1][5] - The Hong Kong government announced a budget for 2025/26 with a significant increase in overall expenditure, projected to support economic development in the medium term [6][8] Domestic Demand - Private consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [2][5] - Local fixed capital formation fell by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant drop in investment growth in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][15] External Demand - Hong Kong's merchandise exports grew by 1.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, but the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [2][16] - Service exports increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with notable recoveries in financial, tourism, and transportation services [2][17] Employment and Inflation - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Q4 2024 was 3.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from Q3 2024, remaining at historical lows [18][19] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from Q3 2024, indicating moderate inflation [20] Interest Rates and Currency - Hong Kong's interest rates were cut by 50 basis points in Q4 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points for the year [21][22] - The Hong Kong dollar appreciated slightly against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.77 HKD/USD to 7.76 HKD/USD in Q4 2024 [24] Financial Markets - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with average daily trading volume increasing to 186.1 billion HKD, up from 121.1 billion HKD in Q3 2024 [26][30] - There was a significant inflow of southbound and overseas funds, with net inflows of 304.3 billion HKD and 2.779 billion USD respectively in Q4 2024 [30] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Hong Kong saw a substantial increase in transaction volumes, with new and second-hand home sales rising by 100% and 31% respectively quarter-on-quarter [3][31] - The average rent for private residential properties increased by 3.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024, while the rental yield stabilized at around 3.6% [32][37] Banking Sector - Customer deposits in Hong Kong's banking sector grew by 7.1% year-on-year by the end of 2024, while customer loan balances decreased by 2.8% [4][43] - The net interest margin improved slightly due to a decrease in funding costs, despite the overall loan demand being constrained by high interest rates [52][54]