征关之治：美股危机中，如何制定一揽子计划？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in major US stock indices, particularly highlighting the Nasdaq index entering a technical bear market, and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a structured investment strategy with a focus on safety margins during market downturns [3][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market has experienced its largest single-day declines since March 2020, with the Nasdaq index falling over 20% from its peak, officially entering a technical bear market [3]. - High valuations have been identified as a primary cause of the current market downturn, with the article suggesting that the return to more reasonable valuations was anticipated [7]. - As of the beginning of the year, major indices were at historically high valuation temperatures, with the Dow Jones at 99.1°C, S&P 500 at 92.9°C, and Nasdaq 100 at 96.2°C, all of which have since seen significant declines [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article recommends developing a targeted investment strategy in response to the current market conditions, suggesting a "pyramid-style" averaging down approach to optimize investment during rapid market declines [9]. - It advises maintaining liquidity to capitalize on potential opportunities as they arise, and suggests a dynamic position balancing method based on initial allocation ratios [10]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently in observable valuation ranges, but overall valuations remain above 50°C, indicating a cautious approach is warranted [10]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation dashboard for the entire market, indicating various metrics such as the Graham index and Buffett index, which suggest that the market is currently in a state of normal to high valuation [14]. - The article highlights the importance of considering external factors such as interest rates and potential policy changes when evaluating cross-border investments [12].