贸易战会如何收场？

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade war between China and the US, suggesting that both sides are preparing for a prolonged conflict, with neither willing to back down in the short term [1][4]. - It highlights the potential for a temporary peak in tensions, followed by a return to negotiations where both parties may agree to reduce tariffs, with China possibly making larger concessions [1][3]. - The article emphasizes the internal factors that will determine the outcome of the trade war, such as the need for China to reform and open more sectors to private enterprises, and the importance of increasing labor income [2][3]. Group 2 - The article points out that the trade war may lead to different economic challenges for China and the US, with China facing overcapacity and potential deflation, while the US may struggle with undercapacity and inflation [5][11]. - It mentions that China's average working hours are strictly regulated, which could help reduce overcapacity by limiting production [5]. - The article also notes that the US economy may undergo significant restructuring in the long term, with a potential decline in the dollar's dominance and a shift towards a multipolar world [3][12]. Group 3 - The article draws historical parallels, referencing Napoleon's continental blockade as a cautionary tale about the consequences of economic isolationism [9][10]. - It suggests that while a complete breakdown in trade between China and the US could occur, both countries would still find alternative trading partners, similar to Russia's situation with Europe [11][12]. - The article concludes that the trade war could lead to increased domestic pressures for reform within China, as external challenges often prompt internal changes [8].