“10元小酒馆”神话崩塌，海伦司崩盘！| 酒业内参

Core Viewpoint - Helen's, known as "China's first small tavern stock," is facing significant challenges in 2024, including a drastic decline in direct sales, a drop in same-store sales exceeding 20%, and a shift from profit to loss, primarily due to consumer fatigue and a lengthy cultivation period in lower-tier markets [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Helen's total revenue plummeted by 37.8% to 752 million RMB from 1.209 billion RMB in 2023 [3][4]. - Direct sales revenue fell sharply by approximately 50%, from 1.103 billion RMB in 2023 to 558 million RMB in 2024 [4][5]. - The company reported a net loss of 77.976 million RMB in 2024, compared to a profit of 180 million RMB in 2023, marking a significant deterioration in financial health [5][8]. Business Segmentation - The direct sales segment's revenue decline was the primary contributor to the overall revenue drop, while the franchise business saw explosive growth, with revenue increasing by about 85% from 105 million RMB in 2023 to 195 million RMB in 2024 [4][5]. - The franchise business now accounts for 25.9% of total revenue, up from 8.7% in the previous year [4][5]. Store Performance - As of March 19, 2025, Helen's had a total of 579 stores across 274 cities in China, with a notable reduction in direct and franchise stores [6]. - Same-store sales dropped by 21.3% in 2024, with average daily sales per store decreasing by 21.5% [6][7]. Market Challenges - The overall consumption market in 2024 showed signs of weakness, with a 1.4% decline in alcohol consumption prices, impacting Helen's performance [8]. - The shift to lower-tier cities has proven challenging, as these markets generally have lower customer spending and brand recognition compared to first- and second-tier cities [11][12]. Strategic Initiatives - Helen's has attempted to pivot its strategy by expanding its franchise model and introducing community space concepts, but these efforts have not significantly improved profitability or same-store sales [12][16]. - The company aims to enhance its international brand presence through a secondary listing in Singapore, although the immediate impact on revenue growth remains limited [16]. Market Valuation - Helen's market capitalization has decreased by over 90% since its peak, with its stock price falling from over 30 billion HKD at IPO to approximately 2 billion HKD as of April 2025 [13][14]. - The company has been removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, leading to decreased trading activity and liquidity concerns [13][14].