【有本好书送给你】特朗普关税战下的中国战略：从制造强国到消费大国

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption in China as a response to external pressures such as the U.S. tariff war, positioning it as a key strategy for economic transformation and sustainable growth [9][30][31]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff War and China's Response - The U.S. has implemented a significant tariff policy, imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a total of 54% when combined with previous rates, which is expected to decrease global trade volume by 5% and negatively impact U.S. economic growth by 0.8% [11][12]. - In response, China has announced countermeasures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports, while emphasizing the need to maintain its legitimate rights and promote high-level opening-up [12][30]. Group 2: Importance of Consumption in China's Economy - Consumption is identified as the starting and ending point of economic circulation, with current issues stemming from insufficient consumer spending, which is low in GDP contribution [15][30]. - The Chinese government has prioritized boosting consumption as a core economic task, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and transition from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economy [14][16]. Group 3: Strategies to Counteract Tariff Impacts - A proposed strategy includes issuing over 1 trillion yuan in universal consumption vouchers and significantly lowering interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and improve living standards [18][19]. - The issuance of consumption vouchers is highlighted as an effective short-term measure to directly increase disposable income and stimulate demand, with a multiplier effect greater than traditional infrastructure investments [18][30]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Transformation - The article outlines several long-term strategies for economic transformation, including shifting fiscal policy from infrastructure investment to social welfare support, innovating monetary policy to promote consumption, and reforming income distribution to enhance disposable income [23][24][25]. - It stresses the need for structural changes in the economy to create new demand and support the growth of the private sector, which is crucial for driving consumption [26][27]. Group 5: Consumption Prosperity Plan - The proposed consumption prosperity plan should amount to 10-15% of GDP, translating to a scale of 10-15 trillion yuan over three years, aimed at stimulating economic activity without specifying usage [28][30]. - Improving social security for low-income groups is essential to enhance their consumption propensity, thereby contributing to overall economic growth [29][30].